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Artificial intelligence (AI) investment is helping support US economic growth, but its contribution to the country’s long-term growth potential
remains uncertain. Heavy spending on data centres and computing infrastructure is boosting business investment, while evidence of sustained,
economy-wide productivity gains remains limited.
A Reuters report published on October 26 said the US economy continues to face structural constraints, including an ageing population and slower immigration. Economists estimate underlying trend growth at around 2%, highlighting the challenge of achieving a lasting acceleration without stronger productivity or a larger workforce.
Technology companies have significantly increased spending on data centres and AI computing infrastructure as they expand capacity to develop and deploy advanced AI systems. This investment is supporting economic activity, although imports of equipment and components needed for these projects are also contributing to import growth.
Corporate tax incentives have provided additional support for capital investment. However, increased spending on AI infrastructure does not, by itself, demonstrate that the technology is raising the economy’s long-term growth rate.
The key question is whether businesses can translate AI adoption into sustained productivity improvements. Recent data have shown stronger output per hour worked, but productivity figures can fluctuate, making it difficult to isolate AI’s contribution. Changes in business practices and working patterns since the COVID-19 pandemic may also affect the results.
In its February 2026 economic outlook, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that real gross domestic product (GDP) would grow by an average of 1.8% annually from 2027 to 2036. The agency also estimated that generative AI adoption would add 0.1 percentage point to annual total factor productivity growth over 2026–2036. This additional contribution is projected to raise nonfarm business output by about 1% in 2036 compared with a scenario without that contribution from AI.
These estimates are forecasts rather than evidence of productivity gains already realised. The eventual economic impact will depend on how quickly businesses adopt AI, how effectively they integrate it into existing operations and whether efficiency improvements outweigh implementation costs.
For now, AI investment is supporting US economic activity, but whether it will deliver a lasting increase in productivity and long-term growth remains an open question.
A Reuters report published on October 26 said the US economy continues to face structural constraints, including an ageing population and slower immigration. Economists estimate underlying trend growth at around 2%, highlighting the challenge of achieving a lasting acceleration without stronger productivity or a larger workforce.
Technology companies have significantly increased spending on data centres and AI computing infrastructure as they expand capacity to develop and deploy advanced AI systems. This investment is supporting economic activity, although imports of equipment and components needed for these projects are also contributing to import growth.
Corporate tax incentives have provided additional support for capital investment. However, increased spending on AI infrastructure does not, by itself, demonstrate that the technology is raising the economy’s long-term growth rate.
The key question is whether businesses can translate AI adoption into sustained productivity improvements. Recent data have shown stronger output per hour worked, but productivity figures can fluctuate, making it difficult to isolate AI’s contribution. Changes in business practices and working patterns since the COVID-19 pandemic may also affect the results.
In its February 2026 economic outlook, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that real gross domestic product (GDP) would grow by an average of 1.8% annually from 2027 to 2036. The agency also estimated that generative AI adoption would add 0.1 percentage point to annual total factor productivity growth over 2026–2036. This additional contribution is projected to raise nonfarm business output by about 1% in 2036 compared with a scenario without that contribution from AI.
These estimates are forecasts rather than evidence of productivity gains already realised. The eventual economic impact will depend on how quickly businesses adopt AI, how effectively they integrate it into existing operations and whether efficiency improvements outweigh implementation costs.
For now, AI investment is supporting US economic activity, but whether it will deliver a lasting increase in productivity and long-term growth remains an open question.
